16 Predictions for 2008

*I love predictions. They are often so wrong, and you get to look back on them after the season and mock those silly enough to make them. That said, I invite you to keep this post and remind me in February how I did. If I get more than 10 right, I deserve some sort of prize. If not, I guess I deserve whatever messages you'd like to send me.*

1. The Minnesota Vikings will have the NFL’s best defense. The Viking D-Line was already the best run-stopping group in the league last year. With the addition of Jared Allen, this unit will get to the quarterback more, as well. Football know-it-All, as you know, puts a lot of emphasis on D-Line performance. Chad Greenway and EJ Henderson are underappreciated linebackers who make tackles all over the field. The Vikes updated their safety corps with a solid Madieu Williams, and Cedric Griffin is entering prime age.

2. A new running power will emerge in Carolina- The Panthers drafted Jeff Otah in the first round, and he will allow Jordan Gross to move back to the left side. This can give Carolina a top-tier pair of tackles. Combine that with their other top draft pick Jonathan Stewart, who will now team with the criminally overlooked DeAngelo Williams. As discussed on this blog, tandem running is crucial in today’s NFL, and this looks to be a potent 1-2 punch.

3. The Buffalo Bills will have a resurgent defense. In the linebacker corps, Paul Pozlusny was having a great start to his rookie season, with 25 tackles in 2.5 games before a season-ending injury. Plus, Kawika Mitchell, who gathered over 50 tackles in the second half of 2007, joins the squad. Marcus Stroud should improve a run defense that was porous last year, plus take double-teams away from Aaron Schobel. If Leodis McKelvin plays even close to expectations, he can give the Bills a good second cornerback.

4. The fight for the NFC East crown will be between the Eagles and the Cowboys. The Cowboys add Pacman to a crew that already excelled in virtually all categories. Plus, their tandem of Marion Barber and Felix Jones may be really special. The Eagles, meantime, look to dominate on the lines, improving on both rushing and pass defense.

5. Philly’s lack of a big-play receiver gives the edge to the Cowboys. This dearth of a playmaker to stretch the field has been evident for many years, with the exception of TO. There is still nobody there to help out, unless undersized rookie DeSean Jackson can become an instant phenom.

6. David Garrard will solidify himself as an elite quarterback. With a big-play target upgrade in Jerry Porter in for Matt Jones, Garrard will have an extra weapon. Plus, Marcedes Lewis is entering his third year, a year where receivers and tight ends often significantly improve statistically. Plus, Garrard’s key stats, completion percentage and TD/INT ratio demonstrate discipline that often leads to maturation rather than regression.

7. Brett Favre is in for a rude awakening. Favre owed a good portion of his resurgent year to a couple of factors. First, the receiving corps led the league in YAC and had very few drops. Also, the offensive line was superb, creating a fantastic running game and letting Favre hit the turf a conference-low 15 times. The Jets are weak in all of those categories. The offensive line is not as upgraded as some think. Allan Faneca turns 32 this year, and Damien Woody is not a natural tackle. Plus, the Jets receivers won’t bail Favre out as much as Jennings and Driver did.

8. The Seahawks will get beaten this year by…jet lag? Mike Sando at ESPN.com once mentioned how much more difficult it is for West Coast teams to travel east than vice-versa. Statistical evidence backs that up. Over the past five years, West Coast teams have played significantly worse when travelling to the east coast than East Coast teams heading west. Seattle this year has the bad fortune of playing both the AFC and NFC East division. Their winning percentage in such games is dismally below their norm, and they now have four of them to play this year. They could be a long-shot to finish .500. Hey, they may still win their division.

9. The New Orleans Saints will return to NFC contention. One strength that made New Orleans so good in 2006 was the mileage that they got out of Reggie Bush with Deuce McAllister taking the majority of rushing attempts. McAllister’s injury force Bush into a more prominent rushing role and exposed him as a tandem runner at best. He can settle back into that role this year. Plus, with Jeremy Shockey added to the offense, Bush will get even more open looks in the slot. The Saints’ offense could be amazing. Meanwhile, the Saints got to use a top-10 pick on DT Sedrick Ellis, who should solidify the run defense. Jonathan Vilma is a statistician’s dream, as he devours tackles and now anchors the MLB position. This Saints team is a real threat.

10. A youth movement will catapult Pittsburgh- The Stillers made two draft picks that play right into Football Know-it-All’s idea of offense. They drafted a top running back, Rashard Mendenhall, to tandem with Willie Parker. Justin Hartwig taking over at center should also offset the loss of Faneca at guard. Plus, they drafted big-play target receiver Limas Sweed, who may be the most promising rookie receiver. If these two rookies start quick, this could be a huge year for Ben Roethlisberger.

11. If the Jets offense does perform, an unlikely candidate will be the savior. Jets fans think that their running game hinges on Thomas Jones, but Jesse Chatman will be a good partner, one who may even take the starting job. Last year, Chatman was top 10 in both Side Yards and 2nd half Yards. If Favre can be convinced to let the running game take a larger role late in close games, Chatman should make the Jets glad they signed him.

12. The Bears will be fighting for the #1 draft pick. There is every reason to believe that this team is heading farther down their spiral. Their starting receivers are now slated as Devin Hester and Brandon Lloyd, neither of whom has ever shown any big play ability. The below-league-average running backs show no signs of improvement, and their QB situation is still a mess. On defense, the Bears were far worse than their points allowed indicated last year. Their yards allowed were over 355/game, but 33 takeaways saved them from giving up more points.

13. The Atlanta Falcons may beat them to it. If Matt Ryan will start this year, he has the fight of a lifetime on his hands. His line is positively sadistic, letting their varied quarterbacks hit the ground more than 50 times last year. That will also make it hard for Michael Turner to become a lone feature back, since he’s only succeeded before in San Diego’s running-back-friendly scheme. The D-Line is also the same, meaning very bad.

14. If a superstar is born out of that sorry scene, it will be Roddy White. White had 82 receptions last year for over 1,200 yards (top 10 in the NFL). In his three years in the league, White has averaged over 15 yards per reception, and has done while his QB’s were as varied as Michael Vick, Byron Leftwich, Joey Harrington and Chris Redman. Now at the age of 26, White appears on the verge of his prime. Rookie qb’s are known to latch onto and keep returning to a feature wideout, and that should be White for Ryan. 2008 could be the year the fantasy owners take notice of him.

15. A rising special teams unit will make Minnesota even more dangerous. When Adrian Peterson went down last year, Aundrae Allison took over as the kick returner and revealed that he is one of the finest in football. He virtually always returns the ball more than 20 yards and average 28.7 yards per return, more than 3 yards over league average per possession. In other words, Allison gets a team more extra yards per possession than most running backs.

16. Sleeper Pick- The Carolina Panthers. Their quarterback play was why their offense was so wretched. Jake Delhomme, unknown to even himself, had need ulnar surgery for three years and finally got it after his elbow popped last year. He has looked better in the preseason than he has in years. Combine that with a newly revamped running game that was already above average and the reunion of Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammed, and you have a revitalized offense. The O-Line has been upgraded as well, as I note in Prediction 2. A high-tackling linebacker, Landon Johnson has been added, as well as depth on my favorite unit, the D-Line. The Panthers and the Saints will both be back this year, and one of them may end up winning the NFC.