Projecting Linebacker Units for 2008 Season

The amount of tackles per starting linebacker that a defense has is a significant predictor of a team's defensive ranking. Tackles Per Starting Linebacker (TPSL) is therefore a stat worth looking at. One should note, however, that DLI (Defensive Line Index, as discussed in previous posts) is a stronger predictor of defensive performance. In other words, better to have a great line than a great linebacking corps, generally speaking. The correlation between TPSL and Yards Allowed Per Game is 0.34, whereas DLI's correlation with Yards Allowed Per Game is 0.52.

Good news for prognosticators is that a linebacker's tackles correlate very well with each other from year to year. Therefore, the adjustments made to project last year's tackles onto this year's tackles are simply age and previous injuries. Furthermore, I looked at past first-round picks and saw how their tackle rate converted to NFl numbers in their first year. There are certainly other factors, but these three adjustments should provide a good estimate. The big changes, therefore, will come from teams who made major acquisitions, draft picks, or from teams whose linebackers are entering their prime years.

Some teams have made major upgrades and should improve their defense considerably as a result. Other teams have lost personal and may backslide.

Thus, with those adjustments made, my projection for Tackles Per Starting Linebacker for 2008 are:

Carolina Panthers- 111
San Francisco 49ers- 106
Buffalo Bills- 103
Minnesota Vikings- 100
Chicago Bears- 100
Detroit Lions- 97
New Orleans Saints- 96
New England Patriots- 96
Atlanta Falcons- 93
Houston Texans- 92
Oakland Raiders- 92
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 91
Baltimore Ravens- 91
Seattle Seahawks- 90
Washington Redskins- 90
Indianapolis Colts- 89
San Diego Chargers- 87
Pittsburgh steelers- 87
Tennessee Titans- 86
Philadelphia Eagles- 85
New York Jets- 84
Denver Broncos- 80
Kansas City Chiefs- 76
Dallas Cowboys- 75
New York Giants- 75
Arizona Cardinals- 73
Cleveland Browns- 70
St. Louis Rams- 68
Miami Dolphins- 65
Cincinnati Bengals- 64
Jacksonville Jaguars- 62

On Thursday, I'll post my 16 Predictions for 2008.