How Running Back Tandems Help Win Games

One truth that has been uncovered by the Football Know it All is that great running backs really distinguish themselves in the 4th quarter. In the first three quarters of a game, there is less variance in yards per carry, but in the fourth quarter, elite running backs like LaDainian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson really pull away from the pack.

The ability to run the ball late in the game is a key determinant not only in who are the great running backs. Yards per carry in the fourth quarter is also one of the strongest predictors of which team will win a Close Game, previously defined as a game decided by 8 points or less. There is another stat that is important to predict the outcome of games. Team yards per carry after the 20th carry of the game have a 0.32 correlation with the overall outcome of the game. A 0.32 correlation indicates that while there are certainly other factors, yards/carry after the 20th carry have a significant impact on the game's outcome.

Only 3 running backs averaged more than 20 carries per game last year, however. So, in order for a team to enjoy this advantage, they must have a potent running back tandem. Teams that have a second running back who had over 300 yards rushing and averaged over 4.0 yards per carry enjoyed the late-game running advantage and had the inside track on winning close games. Below is a list of #2 running backs who helped their teams by gaining 300 yards rushing and averaged 4.0 yards per carry. The backs in bold backed up running backs who also average 4.0 yards per carry:

Jerious Norwood- Atlanta Falcons
Fred Jackson- Buffalo Bills
DeAngelo Williams- Carolina Panthers
Travis Henry- Denver Broncos (released)
TJ Duckett- Detroit lions
Indianaplois Colts- Kenton Keith
Maurice Jones-Drew- Jacksonville Jaguars
Jesse Chatman- Miami Dolphins (now on Jets)
Chester Taylor- Minnesota Vikings
Sammy Morris- New England Patriots
Derrick Ward- New York Giants
Leon Washington- New York Jets
Correl Buckhalter- Philadelphia Eagles
Najeh Davenport- Pittsburgh Steelers
Michael Turner- San Diego Chargers (now on Falcons)
Maurice Morris- Seattle Seahawks
Chris Brown- Tennessee Titans (now with Texans)

As you can see, running back tandems have become the norm in the NFL. Moreover, it has become increasingly common for team to use a draft pick in the first three rounds on a running back, even when they already have an elite back on the roster. This trend demonstrates that smart teams are investing in running back pairs. Even in their rookie years, strong backs who work in tandem with another strong back have seen their teams increase their win totals by three or more games. Recent examples in just the last three years are:

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. New York Jets
4. Tennessee Titans
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
6. Miami Dolphins

Expecting a rookie to be your lone feature back has not worked, however. Teams seem to have only benefited immediately with drafting a running back when there is another start back in place with which to team. Below are the high-drafted rookies who will join established stars in the backfield:

Darren McFadden- 4th overall pick- Oakland Raiders
Jonathan Stewart- 13th pick- Carolina Panthers (DeShaun Foster no longer around; will team with Williams)
Felix Jones- 22nd overall- Dallas Cowboys
Rashard Mendenhall- 23rd overall- Pittsburgh Steelers
Ray Rice- 55th overall- Baltimore Ravens (as a side note, having seen Rice a lot, I see a lot of upside teaming him with McGahee)
Jacob Hester- 69th overall- San Diego Chargers
Steve Slaton- 89th overall (will team with Chris Brown and Ahman Green)