Rating the Best Running Backs- A New Way of Measuring Them

As I've mentioned before, much of what running backs do depends significantly on their surroundings. Therefore, simply looking at the yardage leaders to determine the best running backs can be misleading.

However, there are some things that do distinguish the best running backs from others. Below are three stats that can help determine just how good a running back is:

1. 4th Quarter Yards per Carry- There is significantly more variance between running backs in 4th quarter yards/carry than in overall yards/carry. There are several possibilities for this. Perhaps one true test of a running back's value is how well he can handle a beating over the course of a game and remain effective. Maybe the reason is that as lines get tired, better running backs have more opportunity to differentiate themselves by maneuvering more. Whatever the reason is, the data demonstrate that there is less similarity among runners in the fourth quarter of football games than there is in the rest of the game. The final period, according to the numbers, is where the best runners separate themselves.

2. # of 10+ Yard Runs- As stated above, offensive lines have a lot to do with the success of a rush. This fact, however, is primarily true for the beginning of the rush. Once a running back gets more than 5 yards downfield, a lot of his success depends on his own abilities to break tackles and elude defenders. Therefore, the best running backs would be the ones with many 10+ yard rushes.

3. Side Yards Per Carry- By this I mean the yards per carry a running back gets when running to the left or right, as opposed to up the middle. The offensive line and lead blocker will usually reside in the middle, and when sent out to the sides, a running back will have to rely more on his own skill and elusiveness. Obviously, this statistic cannot be perfect, as blockers sometimes accompany runners to the side as well. However, it is much more common for a runner to be alone on the sides than he is up the middle, and thus, this stat is a clearer indication of his individual performance than running up the middle.


Combined, these three statistics can give us a better picture of who truly are the best running backs in football. Consider however, that these statistics only measure their value as rushers and not as blockers or receivers. Therefore, some running backs who also catch passes may be undervalued in this system. In order to rank the running backs, I awarded them inverse points to their position in each list. For instance, in a list of the 20 top running backs in 4th Quarter Yards/Carry, I awarded 20 points to the top running back and 1 point to the 20th. I added up the scores of all three categories for a top 10. What is revealing is how many of the running backs on this list appeared in all 3 of the lists. While I have not done studied any further yet, the close relationship that the three statistical categories have with each other and the lack of a relationship that they have with some other prominent rushing categories suggests that these three categories may form a common metric of how to measure true individual rushing performance. Look for deeper analysis at a later date.

Another note- Running backs have their best years between the ages of 25-29. Players between that age range can be expected to maintain their effectiveness barring any extraneous circumstances. Younger backs can be expected to improve, while older backs are probably due for a decline soon. Running backs' ages are included in parentheses. Without further ado, the Top 15 Running Backs are:

15. Joseph Addai (25), Indianapolis Colts- Addai is looked at as one of the best offensive weapons in football, much of his prowess comes from his receiving numbers. The skill set that Addai possesses are very much in the Marshall Faulk mode, but as an actual runner, he is merely slightly above league average. The only category in which he broke the Top 10 was 10+ Yard Runs, in which he placed 10th. Many of the stats that Addai excels in may be largely attributable to a great line and offense, which helped Edgerrin James look every bit the superstar. Since going to Arizona, by the way, James' numbers don't earn a spot anywhere near this list.

14. Frank Gore (25), San Francisco 49ers- While getting off to a bad start, Gore followed up a sensational 2006 season with a respectable 1100 yards in 2007. This system's stats also put his performance at respectable, if not quite special. Gore, like Addai, was a top 10 performer in Big Runs, and also did reasonably well in Side Yards. However, Gore's main problem is that he slowed considerably near the ends of games, with production dropping especially steeply in the 4th quarter. Hopefully, the 49ers can get him more support, because he doesn't appear to have the stamina to carry more than 20 times per game.

12(t). Willis McGahee (26), Baltimore Ravens- McGahee is one of the most explosive running backs in the game. He had 32 Big Runs in 2007, which was sixth in the NFL. However, McGahee's problem, going back to his days in Buffalo, is a woeful lack of stamina. His 2nd half numbers are fairly bad, and his fourth quarter numbers are atrocious. In 2007, McGahee averaged less than 3.5 yards per carry in the fourth quarter. McGahee also seems lost somewhat outside the tackles, as his numbers drop significantly when running outside.

12(t). Marion Barber (25), Dallas Cowboys- Barber is another explosive runner, albeit one who is severely hampered running in the outside lanes, as he doesn't even crack the top 20 in Side Yards. His real strength is bursting across the middle and breaking tackles, as he has broken free for 27 Big Runs. Barber also places in the top 10 in 4th Quarter yards per carry.

11. Justin Fargas (28), Oakland Raiders- While he is not particularly flashy or evasive, Fargas is one of the most consistent running backs in the NFL. He is tireless, as his yards per carry actually increase considerably as the game wears on. Only starting in 7 games in 2007, he still made it over the 1,000 yard mark. His numbers may drop this year as he shares the backfield with Darren McFadden, but Fargas's contributions could make the Raiders' offense more productive, especially late in games, where Oakland has suffered recently.

10. Chester Taylor (27), Minnesota Vikings- Even with the arrival of phenom Adrian Peterson, Taylor remains one of the most thrilling open-field runners in football. He is sixth in the NFL in Side Yards, and he also puts up a respectable amount of Big Runs. Teamed with Peterson and a great offensive line, the Vikings ground game should take off enough pressure to let its passing game grow.

9. DeAngelo Williams (23), Carolina Panthers- I hate to brag (sort of), but when Williams was drafted two years ago out of Memphis, I said he'd be the best running back of his class. Forced to play second-fiddle to the inferior DeShaun Foster, Williams still ran for 700 yards on less than 150 carries. He had one of highest yard/carry averages in the NFL, and in the 4th quarter, nobody beats Williams. In the 4th quarter, Williams averages an amazing 6.6 yards/carry, easily the best in football. He is also improving his open field running, and based on how much playing time he got, his 23 Big Runs are excellent. Look for Williams to become an elite back in the next year or two.

8. Willie Parker (27), Pittsburgh Steelers- Parker is an outstanding open-field runner who gets by largely on his blazing speed. When he gets just a bit of daylight, few are better an exploding into the hole to pick up 8 or 9 yards where others may have only gotten five. Often, he gets enough acceleration to accumulate big gains in chunks. This energy seems to wane, however, as his efficiency drops sharply in the 4th quarter. That, however, is his one weakness in an otherwise strong skill set.

6t. Maurice Jones-Drew (23), Jacksonville Jaguars- Jones-Drew is not a particularly flashy runner, and he is not prone to making highlight reels. He is, however, in extraordinary shape, and as defensive linemen and linebackers get worn down late in the game, Jones-Drew maintains his stamina and racks up loads of yards in late, close situations. He is also outstanding at breaking to the sideline ahead of defenders, which is how he finished 4th in the NFL in side-yards. At only 23, he's only getting better.

6t. Brandon Jacobs (26), New York Giants- Jacobs has earned the reputation of a big power runner, which he is. In fact, watching him carry defenders on his back as he fights for first downs is a sight to behold. His ability to simply bowl over linebackers is why he has managed to gain so many yards outside of the tackles. He also keeps his production high late in games, as his sheer power and size overwhelm tired defenders.

5. Brian Westbrook (29), Philadelphia Eagles- If this list were about overall offensive threats, Westbrook might fare even better. It is his overall value, ironically, that actually makes him underrated as a runner. His receiving and returning yards make people forget that only two players have more Big runs than Westbrook and nobody has more Side Yards.

4. Jamal Lewis (29), Cleveland Browns- Many left him for dead before last year, but Lewis proved that there's still something left in the tank. Lewis churned out a ton of side yards and Big Runs, just like Westbrook. The question is, at 29, does Lewis have it in him to do it again?

3. Fred Taylor (32), Jacksonville Jaguars- Talk about being left for dead. Very few believed that Taylor truly had another great season in him, but at 31, he may have had his best one yet. He was able to rack up Side Yards and good 4th Quarter efficiency, but it was his trademark Big Run ability that gave him such a special year. He's 32, but with a talent like Jones-Drew lightening the load, Taylor may be able to shake out a few more good years.

2. LaDainian Tomlinson (29), San Diego Chargers- What's not to love? He gains yards up the middle, down the left, and down the right. He has more Big Runs than anybody, stacking up a phenomenal 44 of them last year. Maybe most noteworthy of all, his late-game performance is amazing. His 4th quarter numbers are highly impressive, and he averages an unheard-of 7.6 yards/carry after his 20th carry of a game.

1. Adrian Peterson (23), Minnesota Vikings- Peterson actually placed second in every one of the system's categories, which indicates that he is outstanding across the board. His explosive speed and ability to break long runs have been witnessed by any viewer of SportsCenter. He is also an extraordinarily graceful runner, whose ability to dodge defenders and fit through holes may be unmatched since Barry Sanders. Plus, the guy's only 23. Imagine if this is just him warming up.

P.S. Deuce McAllister was not eligible for this list because of his 2007 injury. However, expect him to be a top 10 back in 2008. His historical numbers in the above categories suggest that he belongs there.