Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Undervalued Kick Returners and How They Change Games

Most fans don't really notice kick returners unless they break for a touchdown. After all, it seems that the vast majority of kick returns end at about the 25 or 30 yard line and are almost uniform. Aside from the rare spectacular return, most kick returns seem to be pretty much the same.

Kick returns, it should be known, play a huge part in games. There is a reason that a Buffalo Bills team that finished 26th in offense and 29 in defense last year finished with 7 wins instead of, say, 3 wins. Their special teams were amazing, often getting them 5-8 yards more per possession that would an average kick return unit. Those yards put them in vital field goal position for a team that won 4 of its 7 games by 5 points or less.

Buffalo Bills aside, what would you say if someone told you that your quarterback who threw for 3,000 yards last year would throw for 3,400 hundred yards with no extra interceptions? Or, if your team's lead running back will run for 1,500 yards this year instead of his usual 1,100? That's right, the top five kick returning teams gained, on average, 400 yards more in kick returns than league-average kick returning teams. A net increase of 400 yards is a substantial difference over the course of a season. Who cares if they're the first yards of a drive instead of the last yards?

A few more facts:

- The league's top 5 kick returners last year averaged 29.0 yards per return, which means that they contributed 29 yards to each possession on which they returned a kickoff. League average among returners who returned at least 30 kicks was 24.5. So, elite returners will give you an extra 4.5 yards per possession. Over the course of a game, 4.5 yards per possession will likely lead to multiple extra scores, as either field goals or touchdowns. In other words, those yards are valuable.

- The top five rushers last year averaged 13.7 yards per possession. League average for lead rushers was 10.0 yards per possession. Elite rushers, in other words, gave a team an extra 3.7 yards per possession, which is less than what returners give you.

- The top five receivers averaged 13.3 yards per possession. League average for a team's top receiver was 10.2 yards per possession. Thus, an elite receiver will gain a team an extra 3.1 yards per possession.

So, now that we've touched upon how valuable a great kick returner can be, who are currently the best returners in the NFL?

5. Darren Sproles, San Diego Chargers- Sproles didn't make a lot of highlight reels, largely because he only had one touchdown. Touchdowns, however, are an overrated stat for returners, as very rarely does anyone have more than 2 or 3 in a season. Sproles, however, did average 27.2 yards per return. He also had returns of more than 20 yards on 73% of his returns. He returned the ball more than 40 yards on five different occasions, tied for second in the league. Big returns like those on such a frequent basis can change games, and often.

4. Leon Washington, New York Jets- Washington is simply explosive. He averaged 27.5 yards per return, bringing back 5 of them for more than 40 yards. Three of those returns happened to wind up in the end zone. Thirty-five of his returns gained more than 20 yards, which is 9th in the NFL. Washington's 1,291 return yards were a rare bright spot in the Jets' 2007 season.

3. Aundrae Allison, Minnesota Vikings- One of the league's undiscovered treasures, Allison does not get the attention of his fellow Viking returner, super-rookie Adrian Peterson. However, when Peterson went down to injury, Allison had his shot to shine. He only returned 20 kicks once he was installed, but he averaged an outstanding 28.7 yards per return, which is more than 4 yards above league average. Even with those rare chances, he still returned 3 kickoffs for more than 40 yards. That is a rate more than twice of even elite return men. If Allison becomes the full-time man in Minnesota, Adrian Peterson can get more rest and the Vikings could have themselves an elite weapon in Allison.

2. Andre Davis, Houston Texans- The 30.3 yards per carry should say it all. One concern with Davis, however, is that only 67% of his returns are for more than 20 yards. All that means, however, is that when he does break for more than 20 yards, he breaks a big one. His three touchdowns are testament to that. A returner with such breakaway speed can have his team at midfield in no time.

1. Josh Cribbs, Cleveland Browns- Many people may remember his circus-like touchdown return against the Stellers last year, but Cribbs is more than just a one-hit wonder. In fact, Cribbs is the most consistent returner in the game. An amazing 83% of returns, he gains more than 20 yards. He also leads the NFL with 7 returns of more than 40 yards. An average of every other game, Cribbs busts a game-changing, colossal return. The Browns benefited to the tune of 1,809 yards from Cribbs' kickoff returns in 2007. Many returners who break off so many long runs have fumbling problems, but Cribbs only coughed up the ball once all season.

Okay, you're wondering about Devin Hester? Well, as a punt returner, he's phenomenal. But as a kickoff returner, he's actually not too much better than average. His return average of 21.7 is actually almost 3 yards less than league average. Furthermore, he doesn't even advance half of his returns more than 20 yards. His 2 touchdowns fool a lot of people, but when everything else is analyzed, the five above definitely do more.

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