What Teams Will Have the Best Defensive Lines in 2008?

Exhaustive statistical research has indicated that the defensive line is the most important part of a defense, and it has the most predictive value in forecasting a team's defensive performance. With that in mind, I now look ahead to 2008 and forecast which teams will have the best defensive lines.

In order to make these forecasts, I took each team's Defensive Line Index (DLI) from 2007 and made adjustments based on personnel changes. (refer to the previous post for a more detailed description of DLI)

a. Points were added if a team was upgrading with a player who performed well in the criteria used for DLI.

b. Points were subtracted when a team lost a player high in DLI stats and replaced him with someone worse.

c. Points were added if a defensive line's average age moved closer to the 26-30 age range, which a random sampling demonstrated are the best years of a defensive lineman's career. In other words, teams got points for maturing. Teams that got a lot younger suffered.

d. Points were added on a sliding scale if a team drafted a defensive lineman in the first three rounds, with more points being awarded to higher draft picks.

Thus, The projected 2008 rankings of NFL defensive lines:


1. Minnesota Vikings- 42.6
2. Philadelphia Eagles- 40.7
3. San Diego Chargers- 39.9
4. Seattle Seahawks- 38.9
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 37.9
6. New York Giants- 37.5
7. Dallas Cowboys- 37.0
8. Jacksonville Jaguars- 35.4
9. Green Bay Packers- 34.2
10. Arizona Cardinals- 33.7
11. Baltimore Ravens- 32.4
12. New England Patriots- 31.2
13. Miami Dolphins- 30.8
14. Detroit Lions- 30.1
15. San Francisco 49ers- 29.8
16. Chicago Bears- 28.3
17. Tennessee Titans- 27.1
18. New Orleans Saints- 26.8
19. Indianapolis Colts- 26.8
20. St. Louis Rams- 26.4
21. Washington Redskins- 25.9
22. New York Jets- 25.8
23. Buffalo Bills- 25.6
24. Houston Texans- 25.3
25. Denver Broncos- 25.2
26. Kansas City Chiefs- 24.8
27. Cleveland Browns- 23.1
28. Pittsburgh Steelers- 21.9
29. Carolina Panthers- 19.8
30. Atlanta Falcons- 18.4
31. Cincinnati Bengals- 16.8
32. Oakland Raiders- 15.4


**Now, keep in mind, that DLI is still a new metric, and I'm working on perfecting it. Furthermore, I'm also working on developing better predictive metrics to forecast future performance. Does that sound like hedging? Okay, I'm a little bit guilty. But hey, that's better than those prediction gurus that promise the moon. The bottom line, though, is that a number of reliable statistical measures went into this formula, and I feel good that, barring injuries, the numbers will shape up something like this.**

P.S. As for the Giants, this formula assumes that both Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan will be missing. If Strahan returns, their score should improve.